Under the so-called “Paris Agreement”, the UN agreement that commits countries to reducing their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in order to mitigate climate change, governments have to commit to reducing their GHG emissions. They do this through the development and submission of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), which are updated as necessary. Ian Skinner of TEPR worked with colleagues at Ricardo and GIZ to support the Government of Uganda to assess and model the country’s GHG reduction potential from its transport sector. This will help the country optimise the contribution of the transport sector to the country’s NDC, as well as supporting it in making decisions about the implementation of GHG emissions reduction policies for the country’s transport sector.

The Paris Agreement and NDCs

The UN’s Paris Agreement sets the framework in which countries reduce their GHG emissions so that the global temperature increase due to climate change is limited to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels by 2050. Rather than set targets for individual countries, the Paris Agreement requires governments to set an NDC. These are then assessed to see whether together all countries’ NDCs will be sufficient to limit global warming. Currently, the NDCs are not sufficient to limit warming to the target level, so countries are being encouraged to strengthen their NDCs.

Understanding transport’s GHG mitigation potential

In order to strengthen a country’s NDC, it is important for the country to understand the mitigation potential in each of its main economic sectors. For the transport sector, this means identifying the extent to which GHG emissions can be reduced by improving vehicle efficiency, switching the power source that vehicles use (e.g. electrifying transport), switching to more sustainable modes and avoiding the need to travel. The analysis requires an understanding of the current situation in the country’s transport sector, including its use of different types of fuel and the existing efficiency of its vehicle fleet. Projections can then be made of the future evolution of the transport sector and its GHG emissions without additional policy intervention, as well as under different levels of policy ambition in terms of GHG reduction.

Ian Skinner (of TEPR) supporting the assessment and modelling of transport’s GHG mitigation potential in Uganda

Ian, together with colleagues at Ricardo and GIZ, supported the Government of Uganda in developing and modelling potential future scenarios for GHG emissions in its transport sector. An existing model was used, which was populated by evidence on the current state of Uganda’s transport system along with assumptions about the potential impact on GHG emissions of different transport policies. The development of potential policies followed the ‘ASIF’ framework, so policies that focused on Avoiding travel, Shifting transport to more sustainable modes (such as public transport, cycling and walking), Improving the efficiency of the vehicles that are used and taking action on the Fuels that are used. Assumptions were based on evidence from other policy interventions, as far as was possible.

The final report sets out scenarios for the future development of GHG emissions in the Ugandan transport sector. The scenarios model the potential impact of different types of policy and can be used to inform both Uganda’s NDC, as well as the development of policies to reduce GHG emissions in the Ugandan transport sector. The report can be found on the relevant section of TEPR’s website.

For More Information

TEPR is an independent research consultancy that works on projects to improve the environmental performance of transport. For more details about the above project, or our work more generally, contact Ian Skinner at TEPR ( or call +44 (0)7521 063324.

August 2022

0 replies

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.