TEPR Projects: EU Transport GHG: Routes to 2050

The two ‘Routes to 2050’ projects were undertaken by a consortium led by AEA. Ian Skinner of TEPR was the original project manager of the first project whilst he was at AEA and continued to be the project’s technical lead after he had formed TEPR; TEPR was a sub-contractor for the second project.

The first project ran from December 2008 to June 2010, while the follow-up began in January 2011 and lasted for 15 months. When the first project was launched, EU policy was focusing on the needs of the next 10 years. However, with respect to the need to mitigate climate change, there was already a recognition of the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) substantially in the longer-term – by at least 80% by 2050 compared to 1990 levels.

Hence, the first ‘Routes to 2050’ project started to consider the long-term policy framework that might be needed for the transport sector in order to reduce economy-wide greenhouse gases to these levels. In addition to AEA, the project also involved TNO, CE Delft, ISIS and Milieu. More information on the second project can be found on the separate project page.

The first project was divided into three distinct parts. The first consisted of the production of a couple of papers that set out the wider context:

• EU transport trends and drivers, which was led by ISIS.
• Identifying transport’s contribution to 2050 GHG emission reductions, which was led by TNO.

The second part of the project looked at the options for reducing GHG emissions from transport, where ‘options’ were defined as the technical or operational means through which GHG emissions might be reduced. This resulted in the production of a number of papers:

• Technical options to reduce GHG emissions for fossil fuel-based road transport, which was led by TNO.
• Alternative energy carriers and powertrains to reduce GHG emissions from transport, which was led by AEA.
• Technical options to reduce GHG emissions for non-road transport modes, which was led by AEA.
• Operational options to reduce GHG emissions for all transport modes, which was led by CE Delft.
• Modal split and decoupling GHG reduction options; which was led by CE Delft.

The third part of the project analysed the policy measures that might be introduced to promote the uptake of the various options. Again, this part of the project produced a series of papers:

• Regulation for vehicles and energy carriers, which was produced by TNO and CE Delft.
• Economic Instruments, which was led by CE Delft.
• Infrastructure, spatial policy, speed reduction and traffic management, which was produced by CE Delft and TNO.
• Information, encouraging fuel-efficient operation, procurement, R&D and pilots, which was led by AEA.

In parallel, a number of additional reports were undertaken on specific aspects of GHG emissions reduction from transport:

• Energy security, GHG reduction and the transport sector, led by AEA.
• Methodological issues relating to cost-effectiveness assessment, led by CE Delft.
• EU transport trends and drivers – Freight trends and forecasts, led by ISIS.
• An overview of the factors that limit new technology and concepts in the transport sector, led by AEA.
• Review of projections and scenarios for transport in 2050, led by CE Delft.
• Review of potential radical future transport technologies and concepts, led by AEA.
• SULTAN: Development of an illustrative scenarios tool for assessing the potential impacts of measures to reduce EU transport GHG emissions, led by AEA.
• Routes to 2050 project methodology report, led by AEA.

Each of these reports was presented in a draft format to a stakeholder workshop before being finalised. All of the analysis was brought together in the project’s Final Report.